On the first day of the financial year 2010-11, the markets, on the back of strong global cues and a bit of short covering, closed on a strong note. The 30-share BSE Sensex ended the day at 17,692.62, up 164.85 points or 0.94% and the 50-share NSE Nifty rose 0.79% or 41.40 points to settle at 5,290.50.
However for the week, the bourses closed on a flattish note with the Sensex and Nifty shutting shop at 17,692.62 (up 0.3%) and 5,290.50 (up 0.15%), respectively.
The market, Sudeep Bandyopadhyay of Spice Group said, was still moving in the band with 5,300 at the top. “We will require a definite event to help the market breakout of the range. It can come by way of quarterly or annual results. Also the indication of the monsoons can have an impact on the market and its movement.”
Also, crises in the European markets continue to hog headlines, he said, adding, “We need to be cognizant of the problem in Europe because that may impact foreign institutional investors (FII) inflows into the county if there is a major chaos there.”
A not-too-positive Ashwani Gujral said that the market was quite choppy. “Overall index-wise, we are going nowhere. For the last three days IT was a good short trade, today metals is a good long trade. So we are not breaking out volume. Every single day there are fresh triggers, new stocks come up but overall as an index, we are not moving higher.”
Further he added, “As long as 5,184 stays, we will probably have an upward bias. So you wouldn’t try to short too much in the market but as 5,184 gets taken out that is when the short trade comes in.”
Rajen Shah of Angel Broking believes that the earnings season would be a strong one. “The markets have already started discounting it,” he said. However he was quick to add that no doubt a probable further movement would be seen in the stock prices of the companies as many of them were still under valued.
Being bullish on a number of sectors, ranging from tyres to hotels, Shah said, “The economy is doing well, resulting in an upward movement in hotel occupancies. Also, with commonwealth games happening next year, the average room rates (ARRs) are bound to shoot up.”
Still fond of Indian Hotels, Shah said, “We have recently added East India Hotels, which is looking very promising. Its quoting at Rs 120 and the last time Sensex touched 21,000 it was Rs 240, today we are nearing that and this is at about Rs 120 levels. A decent 50% appreciation in this stock cannot be ruled out.”
Reliance needs a booster?
Reliance has not been doing much to support the index since the last 12-18 months, Bandyopadhyay said, adding, “The gas dispute resolution will have a huge physiological impact—whether positive or negative, depends on how the settlement works out. But I think somewhere Reliance is sitting on a large pile of cash. It sold treasury stock and mobilised huge amount of money for acquisition abroad which did not fructify. At this particular point in time Reliance needs to do some major acquisition in the international markets.”
“They are doing some coming back in retail, but that really is not going to impact the company of Reliance’s size significantly. So that break-out movement of the company itself needs to come, some event has to take place there,” he added.