NEW DELHI – India’s premier economic research institution, National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER) on Tuesday said despite a global slowdown, Indian economy could grow by up to 8.9 per cent during 2008-09.
“While the GDP growth in the base case is projected to be 8.5 per cent, in the more comprehensive case, GDP growth is projected at 8.9 per cent,” the latest quarterly review of the economy by NCAER said.
The short-term prospects are less attractive than a year earlier despite the fundamentals of growth remaining intact, NCAER said.
Inflation, during the year, is likely to be in between 4.9 and 5.2 per cent against 4.4 per cent last year. At the same time, fiscal deficit is projected to be close to 3 per cent of GDP even under the higher growth scenario, it said.
As per the advance estimates for 2007-08, the country’s economy expanded by 8.7 per cent. The report said the sustainability of the growth momentum is clearly subject to overcoming the shocks and constraints along the way.
Pointing out the constraints, the report said the cyclical downturn in advanced economies and high commodity prices in international markets due to both short-term supply shortages as well as high growth in economic activity in the emerging economies could act as shocks.
Last week, RBI had projected a GDP growth of 8-8.5 per cent this fiscal, assuming that global financial and commodity markets and real economy will be broadly aligned with the central scenario and normal monsoon conditions prevail.